By Curtis Patrick • Oct 31, 2018
Half of the NFL division is already abaft us. Eight amateur is a baby sample admeasurement in the ambit of a player’s career, but it’s two-thirds of the fantasy football approved season. What would 16 games’ account of assembly attending like if every amateur maintained his accepted clip through the end of the season?
I thoroughly adore this exercise because it puts paces in ambience of NFL history and armament me to attending at arch indicator metrics with an actionable eye. It’s important to accept what’s alive assembly (or the abridgement thereof) to adjudge which players are buys, holds, and sells as you hunt the titles. In 2017, we accurately articular that affairs Kareem Hunt for Le’Veon Bell could be a league-winning move afterwards Anniversary 4. In 2018’s quarter-season clip piece, I appropriate that Patrick Mahomes wasn’t activity to air-conditioned off (he’s still the QB1, and by about 50 points), that Keenan Allen’s backward assembly ability be the accuracy (so far, absolutely annihilation has changed) and that Carlos Hyde was an accessible sell.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City ChiefsQuarter-season pace: 4,800 casual yards, 56 casual touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 460 fantasy pointsHalf-season pace: 5,052 casual yards, 52 casual touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 446 fantasy points
The catechism afterwards four amateur was: can he sustain it? The answer, in short, has been yes. Mahomes’ aboriginal four amateur were the best able in the PFF era, as he finer denticulate 0.77 fantasy credibility per dropback. Through eight games, Mahomes is still scoring fantasy credibility at a amount of 0.72 PPDB, with his interceptions absolutely actuality the alone bottomward disciplinarian over the accomplished four games. His hasty assembly hasn’t cooled either; he’s added addition 66 hasty yards and a hasty touchdown to his totals aback we aftermost arrested in. At this point, Peyton Manning’s almanac 432-point division has been put on notice.
Other notable paces:
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis ColtsCurrent pace: 46 casual touchdowns
Luck has been baking aback the final anniversary of September, accession bristles afterwards amateur with at atomic three casual touchdowns. His antecedent career aerial was three afterwards in 2014. He’s done this admitting a accepting band that has battled injuries all season; no amateur has 400 accepting yards through the team’s aboriginal eight games. Luck has befuddled touchdowns to 11 altered players, including one to article alleged Mo Alie-Cox. It’s been a contentment to see him accomplish his above-mentioned form. Luck’s antecedent career aerial is 40 casual touchdowns, and I anticipate that’s a acceptable over/under band to set for season’s end because I anticipate he’ll air-conditioned off anytime so hardly in this administration due to the contempo blemish of Marlon Mack.
Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago BearsCurrent pace: 677 hasty yards
Trubisky is angry for QB6 in absolute fantasy credibility through eight alliance games, but the Bears accept already had their bye — yes, Trubisky is QB6 akin spotting best of the acreage a d (he’s QB5 in credibility per game, if you adopt that metric, admitting it agency we add Ryan Fitzpatrick in). A huge accidental agency has been his hasty production. Trubisky is additional amid quarterbacks with 296 yards, abaft Cam Newton by a bald four yards. He has two touchdowns via his anxiety as well. If paces hold, his 677 yards will be the fourth-most by a quarterback over the accomplished bristles years (Newton is on clip for 686). This development is huge for Trubisky’s season-long angle and his absolutism angle alike. Aback 2013, the arch rusher amid quarterbacks has accomplished as a top-five fantasy QB four times.
Todd Gurley, Los Angeles RamsCurrent pace: 470 PPR points
Let’s aloof booty a moment to acknowledge how absorbing Gurley has been so far this season. He’s 33 credibility bright of PPR RB2, Saquon Barkley and an amazing 120 credibility bright of PPR RB12, Tarik Cohen. Gurley’s 235 credibility are the best by any amateur (including quarterbacks!) through eight amateur in the PFF era (2007-present).
David Johnson is the alone alive aback who has eclipsed 400 PPR credibility in a division during the PPF-era (2016). Gurley should blast the mark this division en avenue to one of the greatest statistical seasons by any alive aback in NFL history.
The botheration with absolutely hitting 470 PPR credibility is the Rams are aloof too good. Gurley owners already collectively cringed in Anniversary 8 aback the aback advisedly accustomed himself to be tackled central the 5-yard band as time ran down. For this 470 cardinal to occur, the Rams are activity to accept to lose at atomic two games, I think. Contrarily it will aloof be too appetizing for Coach Sean McVay to blow the superstar afterwards playoff position has been bound in, as he did aftermost season.
Saquon Barkley, New York GiantsCurrent pace: 1,038 hasty yards, 994 accepting yards, 116 receptions, 404 PPR points
Barkley’s absurd division is somehow actuality disregarded because of a absolute storm of circumstances: Fantasy Twitter can’t attending accomplished the Giants accommodation to booty him instead of a quarterback, the Giants are still abhorrent admitting his performance, and Gurley is baking the apple and acquisitive the spotlight.
Barkley has a accepted attempt at putting calm aloof the third 1,000 hasty yard/1,000 accepting backyard division in NFL history.
As a rookie. On a abhorrent team.
The antecedent two backs to accomplish the accomplishment were Marshall Faulk in 1999 and Roger Craig in 1985.
He’s alarmingly aing to on-target to his both numbers, so there isn’t abundant allowance for absurdity here. However, his bendability has been arresting over the aboriginal bisected of the division and this isn’t absolutely actuality fed by any boom-type amateur from a yardage perspective. He’s surpassed 100 yards from flat in seven of eight contests. He’s about the team’s WR2, with 58 receptions (which is absolutely acceptable for fourth in the NFL appropriate now). If this clip is captivation up through, say, 13 games, again I don’t see how the aggregation doesn’t advance in allowance him accomplish the mark in what will contrarily be an acutely forgettable division in authorization history.
If Barkley’s hasty assembly were to abatement abbreviate of 1,000 yards, he could still set annal and accompany absolute clubs for his accepting assignment at the position.
Barkley is on clip to blast the NFL almanac for best receptions by a alive aback in a distinct season, with 116. The accepted almanac is 102, set by Matt Forte in 2014. If he does end up with added than 1000 accepting yards, he’ll be aloof the fourth alive aback in NFL history to do so (Faulk, Craig, and Lionel James the others).
For fantasy purposes, Barkley is additionally on clip for over 400 PPR points, which as I mentioned earlier, is rarified air. With an added touchdown amid now and season’s end, Barkley’s acclimatize clip would beat David Johnson’s mark of 407 in 2016.
Adam Thielen, Minnesota VikingsCurrent pace: 148 receptions
Thielen is currently PPR WR1 by a allowance of 37 credibility acknowledgment to baronial aboriginal in receptions and accepting yards and third in accepting touchdowns. His 74 receptions are the best through Anniversary 8 of a division during the PFF era (2007-present). If he can authority this pace, he’ll set a new NFL record, breaking the accepted mark of 143 (Marvin Harrison, 2002). Akin if he avalanche aloof a few receptions off pace, he can still become aloof the additional amateur in NFL history with 140 or added receptions in a season.
The aggregate has been there consistently, so I anticipate this is a mark we’ll accept to accumulate a aing eye on for the blow of the season. Thielen has apparent at atomic 10 targets in seven out of eight games, never announcement beneath than six receptions.
Davante Adams, Green Bay PackersCurrent pace: PPR WR2
Adams is PPR WR2 in credibility per game, with 22.4 per contest, admitting he checks in at WR4 in raw scoring due to Green Bay already accepting its bye week. Adams is pacing for career highs in targets, receptions, accepting yards, and touchdowns – a absolute sweep. For fantasy anatomy of reference, if his per-game assembly holds, he’ll account 358 PPR points, which would’ve calmly been WR1 in 2017 or 2016.
Aaron Rodgers has leaned on him added heavily of late, as the aggregation has cycled through a cardinal of commutual receivers due to injuries. Adams is alive on an alive band of three afterwards amateur with at atomic 100 accepting yards (he’d never done this in two afterwards amateur above-mentioned to 2018). Actually, it’s three afterwards amateur with added than 130 accepting yards, authoritative him one of alone four players in the alliance to accept three such amateur this division (Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans, and Julio Jones are the others).
Adams has absolutely emerged as an alpha ambition and is angry to arguably the best quarterback in the d today. If he’s not in your absolutism top-five at the position, you’re accomplishing it wrong.
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia EaglesTravis Kelce, Kansas City ChiefsCurrent pace: Over 1,200 accepting yards
Ertz (1,288) and Kelce (1,284) are both on-pace for over 1,200 accepting yards, a mark alone accomplished seven times by bound ends in NFL history. The distinct division position almanac is 1,327, set by Rob Gronkowski in 2011. Interestingly, 2011 is the alone division in which two bound ends eclipsed 1,200 yards in the aforementioned division (Gronkowksi and Jimmy Graham). Both Ertz and Kelce accept an alfresco attempt to set a new mark; however, Kelce seems like a abundant bigger bet. As mentioned earlier, Mahomes could end up with over 5,000 casual yards this season, so unless the Chiefs add addition abundant account target-getter to the mix anniversary anniversary affective forward, Kelce should be able to advance his pace. Ertz, on the added hand, may accept added trouble. The Eagles traded for Golden Tate at the deadline, a amateur who does his accident in the aforementioned breadth of the acreage as Ertz, and one who will command some cogent ambition share. Both players accept fabricated a active on looks beneath 10 yards this season. About 82% of Tate’s targets accept been beneath than 10 yards abysmal and over 65% of Ertz’s targets accept occurred in the aforementioned area.
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