Varian Medical Systems, Inc. (NYSE:VAR) Q4 2018 Antithesis Appointment Alarm October 23, 2018 4:30 PM ET
Michael Bruff – SVP, IR
Dow Wilson – President, CEO & Director
Gary Bischoping – Senior VP, Finance & CFO
Amit Hazan – Citigroup
Anthony Petrone – Jefferies
Eleni Apostolatos – JPMorgan
Vijay Kumar – Evercore ISI
Brandon Henry – RBC Basic Markets
Jason Bednar – Robert W. Baird & Co.
Frits Jonker – Goldman Sachs Group
Ladies and gentlemen, greetings, and acceptable to the Varian Medical Systems, Inc. Fourth Division Budgetary Year 2018 Antithesis After-effects Appointment Call. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this affairs is actuality recorded.
It is now my amusement to acquaint your host, Michael Bruff. Thank you, you may begin.
Thank you, Operator. Acceptable afternoon, everyone. Aing me today on the alarm are Varian’s President and Chief Executive Officer, Dow Wilson; and Chief Banking Officer, Gary Bischoping. Dow will allotment his thoughts on our after-effects and abiding strategy, and Gary will awning our operating and banking after-effects in added detail.
On the Varian Investor Relations website, you can accretion our budgetary fourth division columnist absolution and web deck, which are advised to accommodate added angle and details. A webcast of this alarm and any accompanying non-GAAP adaptation are accessible on our website at www.varian.com/investors.
Unless contrarily stated, all banking after-effects discussed are non-GAAP and from continuing operations. All references to EPS are to net antithesis per adulterated share. All beforehand ante are year-over-year, and any references to orders are gross orders. All periods referred to are budgetary periods unless contrarily stated.
During this call, we will be authoritative avant-garde statements, which are predictions, projections or added statements about approaching events. These statements are based on accepted expectations and assumptions that are accountable to risks and uncertainties. Absolute after-effects could alter materially because of factors discussed in today’s antithesis release, this appointment alarm and our SEC filings. We do not undertake any assignment to amend any avant-garde statements.
And with all that said, I’ll about-face it over to Dow.
Thanks, Mike, and acceptable afternoon, everyone. Today, I’ll allotment the key milestones we accomplished this accomplished division and year and how they contributed to our abiding action as able-bodied as accommodate our angle for the accessible budgetary year. First, let me blow on our budgetary fourth division performance, which was the aftereffect of able execution, both from a beforehand and operational perspective. Absolute revenues of $802 actor added 11%. Oncology acquirement grew 13%, apprenticed by our chip platform, with best-in-class hardware, software and services. Revenues for our proton solutions business were $46 million. On a abounding year basis, absolute revenues were $2.9 billion, a beforehand of 11%. Operating antithesis of $142 actor or 17.8% of revenues grew 14%. For the abounding year, operating antithesis of $517 actor or 17.7% of revenues grew 31%.
GAAP EPS of $1.26 grew 49%, and non-GAAP EPS of $1.16 grew 11%. For the abounding year, GAAP EPS of $1.62 beneath 33% due to the onetime appulse of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and non-GAAP EPS of $4.42 grew 36%. Banknote flows from operations were $108 million, bottomward 17%. For the abounding year, banknote flows from operations were $455 million, up 14%. The U.S. China tariffs impacted our Q4 result, which Gary will altercate in added detail in his section.
The bearings continues to be dynamic, but Varian charcoal committed to ensuring that our barter and the patients they amusement are able to accomplish new victories adjoin cancer, afterwards any disruption in admission to our leading-edge technologies. Our abiding beforehand action is working. We accept it is the appropriate focus and that we accept the capabilities to abound our administering position. We abide to advantage our calibration and banking backbone to selectively augment our portfolio as we transform our aggregation into a all-around baton in multidisciplinary chip blight affliction solutions.
In afterward of this strategy, we afresh appear changes in our administering team. In May, we accustomed the Oncology Software Solutions Group beneath Corey Zankowski, who is bringing calm and adjustment our all-around software aggregation and strategy. In October, we were admiring to advertise that Kolleen Kennedy will serve as Chief Beforehand Officer as able-bodied as beforehand the FlashForward action and our proton solutions business. Chris Toth is afterwards Kolleen as the new President of Varian’s Oncology Systems business. Kolleen, Chris and Corey accept fabricated amazing contributions to Varian over the aftermost 2 decades, and we are assured that this aggregation will accommodate the appropriate administering to bear on our beforehand strategy.
So now let me absorb some time on the solid beforehand we accept fabricated aloft our three beforehand initiatives. First, deepening our administering in radiation therapy. Based on accessible filings, the radiation analysis bazaar grew 8% on an orders abject over the abaft 12 months, catastrophe in June 2018. We maintained our bazaar administering and common allotment during that period. In our Oncology business, orders grew 13% in the division to a almanac $1.1 billion, the aboriginal time we accept burst $1 billion in orders for a quarter. For the abounding year, we grew orders 9% to a almanac $3.1 billion. Similarly, this was the aboriginal time we exceeded $3 billion in anniversary orders. Abacus to these absorbing milestones, beforehand in both the fourth division and abounding year were apprenticed by beforehand in every region. This success has been apprenticed by investments in acreage basement and industry-leading innovation. This accomplished year, big aggressive wins included MacCallum, Karolinska and now Genesis Care.
Our common net linac installed abject is now 8,057 units, growing 224 units in the budgetary year. Anniversary net new atrium represents allusive approaching acquirement from software, services, upgrades and best importantly, added accommodating lives touched.
On the accouterments side, we fabricated beforehand with our all-around rollout of Halcyon and accept taken — and accept now taken 182 orders aback our May 2017 launch, including 84 in the fourth quarter. About 40% of these orders were for greenfield sites, demonstrating Halcyon’s adeptness to aggrandize the market.
The uptick was apprenticed by several factors. First, advancing business efforts and chump endorsements accept been a able disciplinarian for new orders as aboriginal adopters accept had an accomplished acquaintance alleviative all ache sites. Second, this was the aboriginal abounding division in which we had 510(k) approval for Halcyon with kilovoltage cone-beam CT imaging and the additional abounding division with approval for this alms in EMEA. Kilovoltage imaging provides a added avant-garde band-aid for the complete bazaar articulation and about 40% of the orders in the fourth division were for the kV Halcyon option. Finally, the accessible breakable action takes some time and we’re starting to see breakable wins with Halcyon.
Since launch, over bisected of our orders common accept been incremental, appropriately growing our installed base. In August, we connected our Oncology portfolio with the accretion of humediQ, the architect of IDENTIFY, a surface-guided radiation analysis accession and motion administering system. IDENTIFY has different accommodating assurance tools, such as a biometric scanner, to affirm the appropriate accommodating will get the appropriate analysis every time. By 2023, we see this bazaar as a $120 actor opportunity.
We had several agitative introductions at ASTRO this week. First, we accumulated capacity of our development assignment for a multimodality adaptive radiotherapy apartment that’s apprenticed by bogus intelligence. This belvedere brings MR, PET and CT imaging calm at the animate to enhance analytic controlling afterwards accommodation to high-fidelity radiation analysis delivery.
Second, we launched Bravos brachytherapy afterloader system, which is an chip arrangement advised to beforehand the accommodating and analytic acquaintance by simplifying brachytherapy analysis and accouterment greater workflow efficiency. Bravos is a big step-forward for brachytherapy treatment, and we are aflame to beforehand analytic efficiencies in this space. On the software front, we abide to see able appeal and absolute acknowledgment for our software solutions. Software revenues grew 7%, and the cardinal of different Varian software barter grew 5% to about 5,000. Barter abide to accept Varian software because of the aggregate they acquire from our abounding — our actually chip avant-garde blight affliction solutions.
RapidPlan, our knowledge-based planning software, had a additional afterwards almanac division aback launch, and we took over 250 orders. The different patented apparatus acquirements capabilities of RapidPlan accept added affection and decreased the acceding time for hundreds of bags of patients. RapidPlan has now penetrated a little added than 15% of our Eclipse installed base. We still accept affluence of aerodrome for added acceptance by our Eclipse users. HyperArc, our high-definition radiotherapy band-aid for stereotactic radiosurgery, additionally had a almanac quarter, with 65 orders. Aback barrage in Q4 aftermost year, we accept taken a absolute of about 170 orders.
Finally, Eclipse MCO, accouterment multi-criteria admission for added ascendancy over analysis planning, had an aberrant division aloft all geographies, with over 250 orders in the quarter. This represents a absolute of about 600 orders aback barrage in Q4 aftermost year. The chump uptake and appeal for our best-in-class software articles after-effects from our focus on evolving bazaar needs and an accent on able analytic workflow, systems affiliation and analysis planning quality.
Services grew 11% for the division and 10% for the abounding year, apprenticed by our growing installed abject and college mix of newer, added avant-garde machines, which about accept a college attach aggregate and arrangement value. The backbone of our anniversary offerings was additionally authentic in IMV’s ServiceTrak Imaging 2018 report, in which we ranked aboriginal in the industry in Net Promoter Score. This anniversary represents the likelihood a chump would acclaim a architect to a colleague, and we’re accustomed to beforehand this metric with a anniversary of 71% as compared with an industry boilerplate of 53%.
In our proton solutions business, we did not booty any new orders in the quarter. For the abounding year, we took 2 proton orders, both in the aboriginal quarter. In the fourth quarter, we completed analytic handovers for 1 allowance anniversary at 3 sites, apery an important approaching alternating acquirement beck for our proton business. These analytic handovers took abode at Georgia Proton Analysis Center, Danish Centre for Particle Analysis and The Christie Proton Beam Analysis Centre.
In September, we appear the accession of the cyclotron for the single-room proton analysis arrangement at Delray Medical Centermost in Florida. Varian is partnering with Proton International for the installation, and the aboriginal accommodating treatments are accepted to alpha in the abatement of 2019.
At ASTRO this week, we additionally appear agitative new developments. First, we appear the accumulation of the FlashForward Bunch to abstraction potentially groundbreaking ultra-high dosage aggregate blight treatments with protons, which is added frequently accepted as Flash. This analysis accomplishment will body aloft auspicious pre-clinical and translational studies that advance Flash protects advantageous tissue while advancement accomplished bump control, thereby acceptable ameliorative ratio. We attending avant-garde to alive carefully with the antecedent 13 avant-garde associates of this bunch to booty an important step-forward in blight research.
Second, we alien ProBeam 360, our new single-room proton analysis system, with a 30% abate brand and a 25% lower volt architecture aggregate as compared with the antecedent system. This increases admission to this technology and provides clinicians with a applicable aisle to abeyant next-generation treatment, such as Flash therapy. With the barrage of ProBeam 360 and beneath Kolleen’s leadership, we apprehend renewed beforehand in the proton business over the connected term.
So a lot of agitative developments that are deepening our administering in radiation therapy. Our additional beforehand action is to extend our all-around footprint. For context, our sales mix for the abounding year was about 50% in the Americas, 30% in EMEA and 20% in APAC. Our beforehand was apprenticed by able achievement aloft all geographies. The bigger beforehand was apprenticed by our Asia Pacific region, which saw a cardinal of key wins in the quarter.
We alive a announcement of compassionate with Genesis Affliction to anatomy a cardinal affiliation for blight affliction analysis and admission the admission to avant-garde affliction — blight affliction in Australia and Europe. This resulted in orders for 10 linacs in Australia in the fourth quarter. We additionally abide to assassinate able-bodied in China and Japan, with double-digit beforehand and bazaar leadership.
In EMEA, we saw our fifth beeline division of double-digit orders growth, apprenticed by breakable wins in Spain and Scandinavia, able software beforehand and an outstanding Halcyon — and outstanding Halcyon orders of over 40 units. We additionally saw able-bodied achievement from upgrades of over $85 million, an admission of 30% for the division and 44% for the abounding year. Upgrades accommodate beeline accelerator enhancements like HyperArc and our 6-degree-of-freedom couch and were apprenticed by EMEA by the hiring of a committed advancement aggregation to focus area the needs are greatest.
We abide to extend our all-around brand by acceptable ample tenders, accouterment chip best-in-class articles and solutions for both complete and arising markets and by acceptable aggressive takeouts. On the Halcyon front, all-around drive continues to grow. Of the Halcyon orders taken aback our mid-2017 launch, over 40% accept been from arising markets and over 80% of those accept been for incremental units. One of our key ambitions for Halcyon is to aggrandize admission to high-quality radiation analysis to underserved regions about the world. We accept connected to see beforehand in Africa, area Varian afresh alive a affiliation acceding with Mediheal Group of Hospitals, to aggrandize admission to radiotherapy in Kenya. This accord included the accumulation of 1 TrueBeam and 4 Halcyon systems to bristles new radiation analysis centers aloft the country as able-bodied as service, training and analysis accord opportunities.
We additionally afresh appear the aboriginal accommodating analysis in India on a Halcyon arrangement at Sterling Blight Hospital in Gujarat. Aural 1 month, the hospital began calmly alleviative 131 patients per day with the Halcyon system.
We feel absolute acceptable about the beforehand we’re authoritative globally, but there still is amazing runway. Finally, our third beforehand action is to aggrandize into added addressable markets. We abide to accept that our absolute 360 Oncology software belvedere will be a disciplinarian of approaching beforehand for the aggregation as we access blight affliction coordination, a bazaar of ample unmet need. We afresh adequate the capabilities of 360 Oncology with the accretion of Noona Healthcare, a developer of cloud-based adaptable accommodating assurance software advised to abduction blight accommodating appear outcomes or PROs. Accommodating appear outcomes are growing in accent for evidence-based analytic trials and translational research. With this acquisition, Varian assets new partnerships with action science companies as the Noona software appliance is acclimated to appoint patients, accumulated PRO data, administer accommodating communications and accredit analytic studies that will analysis the ability of analysis modalities.
Overall, we’re admiring with the beforehand we fabricated in the fourth division and abounding year and the allusive strides taken appear accomplishing our abiding action to become a all-around baton in multidisciplinary chip blight affliction solutions.
With that, I’ll about-face it over to Gary, who will accommodate added ambience on the fourth division and abounding year banking results.
Thanks, Dow, and hello, everyone. As always, I will consistently anatomy my comments in the ambience of our abiding beforehand and value-creation strategy, which includes acclimation growth, advantage and liquidity. So let me alpha with growth. Company-wide revenues were $802 actor in the fourth quarter, up 11% or 12% in connected currency. Oncology revenues in the division were impacted by about $4 actor of contra-revenue from the China castigating tariffs allowable August 23, which are not accounted for in our antecedent guidance.
For the abounding year, revenues of $2.9 billion were up 11% or 10% in connected currency. We concluded the year with $3.2 billion in backlog, up 3%. In Oncology, revenues were $756 million, up 13% or 14% in connected currency, apprenticed by beforehand aloft hardware, software and services. For the abounding year, revenues grew 14% or 12% in connected currency. Orders were $1.1 billion, up 13% or 14% in connected currency. For the abounding year, orders grew 9% or 8% in connected currency. We concluded the division with $3 billion in backlog, up 7%.
Taking a afterpiece attending at our Oncology business results. In the Americas, revenues grew 6% in the division and 8% for the abounding year. Orders of $506 actor grew 6%, apprenticed by 4% beforehand in Arctic America and able double-digit beforehand in Latin America. For the abounding year, orders in the Americas grew 5% and orders in Arctic America grew 3%. Beforehand in Arctic America was apprenticed by abundant ample multisite orders and advantageous appeal for our SRS and SBRT solutions.
In Europe, Middle East, India and Africa geography, revenues grew 27% in the division and 28% for the abounding year. Orders were $361 million, accretion 14%. For the abounding year, orders grew 17%. We accept apparent outstanding after-effects aloft the region, with 5 afterwards abode of double-digit growth, apprenticed by breakable wins and able achievement aloft the geography. Asia Pacific revenues grew 9% in the division and 10% for the abounding year. Orders were $200 actor for the aboriginal time, accretion 31% due to arresting beheading by the bartering teams in China and Japan, key anniversary wins in Australia and beforehand from this year’s accretion of our benefactor in Taiwan.
For the abounding year, orders for the Asia Pacific arena grew 9%. We saw mid-teens beforehand in Greater China in the quarter, with low double-digit beforehand for the year, and we abide to beforehand the bazaar there. In Japan, orders grew over 50%, accidental to abounding year beforehand of about 20%.
Our proton solutions business acquaint revenues of $46 actor in the quarter, which is bottomward 12% compared with aftermost year. For the abounding year, revenues were $149 million, bottomward 18%.
Turning to profitability, absolute aggregation fourth division gross allowance added 11%, apprenticed by our Oncology business, area we abide to see solid acquirement beforehand aloft the portfolio. The gross allowance aggregate was 42.5% of revenues, about collapsed year-over-year. This included the appulse of tariffs to our Oncology business, which resulted in about 30 abject credibility of abrogating appulse at the absolute aggregation level. For the abounding year, gross allowance aggregate added 114 abject credibility to 43.9%.
Oncology fourth division gross allowance added 9%, abundantly apprenticed by acquirement growth, and the aggregate was 43.9%, bottomward 141 abject points. About 30 abject credibility of this abatement was apprenticed by tariffs appulse referenced aloft and the blow of — the blow from geographic mix that was added heavily abounding alfresco Arctic America as compared with aftermost year. Abounding year Oncology gross allowance added by 22 abject credibility to 45.5%.
Looking at proton solutions, fourth division gross allowance dollars were $9 million, up $5 million. Abounding year gross allowance dollars were up 27%, apprenticed by beforehand on high-margin projects — on higher-margin projects.
Now let me about-face to our key advance areas. We abide committed to advance in our business to drive aggregate over the connected term. In the quarter, R&D investments of $60 actor was up 15% at 7.4% of revenues. R&D costs for the abounding year were $234 million, up 11% and apery 8% of revenues. R&D absorb this year was apprenticed by investments in software, adaptive radiotherapy and added cardinal accession programs.
In the quarter, SG&A costs were $138 actor or 17.3% of revenues, bottomward 71 abject credibility as a percent of revenues, apprenticed by abundance improvements in the G&A functions. For the abounding year, SG&A costs were $529 actor or 18.1% of revenues, bottomward 149 abject credibility as a percent of revenues. The abatement was primarily apprenticed by the non-recurrence of a $38 actor accounts receivable assets accompanying to the proton business aftermost year. Excluding this item, SG&A absorb was collapsed for the abounding year, apprenticed by connected advance in sales and marketing, that were account by G&A efficiencies.
Company operating antithesis were $143 actor or 17.8% of revenues, accretion 14%. For the abounding year, operating antithesis of $517 actor or 17.7% of revenues added 31%.
For the abounding year, and for anniversary division of budgetary year 2018, we accept apprenticed advantage in the P&L by growing operating antithesis faster than revenue. In the fourth quarter, we accustomed $6 actor in incremental absorption assets from the ability of accrued absorption on the Maryland Proton Analysis Centermost accommodation paid aloft refinancing of the centermost in August.
Turning to taxes. For the abounding year, our GAAP able tax aggregate was 66.8% due to the onetime appulse of the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The IRS has not issued final tax regulations associated with the contempo U.S. tax legislation. The impacts of the act reflected in our results, and our bump of approaching tax ante represent our best estimates of the appulse of the act and could change as tax regulations are accomplished and the laws added interpreted and activated to our facts.
For the abounding year, our non-GAAP able tax aggregate was 22.4%. This was college than the 21% we accepted primarily because of a about-face in the geographic mix of earnings. GAAP EPS was $1.26 and non-GAAP EPS was $1.16, with accompanying adulterated allotment calculation of 92.2 actor shares in the quarter. For the abounding year, GAAP EPS was $1.62 and non-GAAP EPS was $4.42, up 36%.
An alien agency that impacted our EPS was a $0.03 abrogating appulse due to the August 23 achievement of China castigating tariffs, which were alien afterwards we set guidance.
Turning to the antithesis area and liquidity. We concluded the year with banknote and banknote equivalents of $505 actor and 0 debt. While banknote breeze from operations were $108 million, bottomward 17%, the abounding year banknote breeze from operations were $455 million, up 14%. This fell abbreviate of expectations, apprenticed by faster beforehand in Europe, connected in college receivables balance.
Even with the admission in AR, Oncology DSO decreased by 9 canicule from 111 to 102 days, added demonstrating bigger operational conduct and alive basic management. In accession to R&D, added investments in the division included $17 actor in CapEx.
We are alive in affairs aback shares this quarter, spending $50 actor on allotment repurchases. As of the end of the year, we accept 3.6 actor shares absolute beneath our absolute repurchase authorization.
I will now about-face it aback to Dow, who will altercate our budgetary year 2019 anniversary guidance.
Thanks, Gary. With account to our anniversary guidance, we abide to advance a businesslike access and accept advised the afterward assumptions apropos our budgetary year 2019 guidance. First, connected projected bazaar growth. Second, our articles and solutions are resonating, alive our bazaar leadership. And third, we reflected the projected appulse of the tariffs imposed on July 6 by the United States Barter Representative as able-bodied as the appulse of the China castigating tariffs imposed on August 23. Included in this advice is the net appulse from tariffs of $18 actor to operating earnings, bottomward from a gross appulse of $60 million. We are implementing specific accomplishments aural our accumulation alternation and bartering operations while alive abundance in G&A and rephasing some R&D investments. In aggregate, these accomplishments will abode 70% of the appulse from tariffs.
After authentic application of these assumptions, we apprehend the afterward for budgetary year 2019: acquirement of $3.06 billion to $3.15 billion, apery beforehand of 5% to 8%; non-GAAP operating antithesis as a allotment of revenues of 17% to 18%; non-GAAP antithesis per allotment of $4.60 to $4.75; banknote flows from operations of $460 actor to $510 million. The advice assumes the non-GAAP able tax aggregate of 21% to 22% and a abounding boilerplate adulterated allotment calculation of $92 million. The advice additionally assumes adopted barter ante as of the alpha of budgetary year 2019 excludes any approaching M&A action and includes the accepted appulse of all currently allowable tariffs.
As it will booty several months to appearance in our assorted acknowledgment efforts about tariffs, we apprehend our antithesis achievement to be added heavily abounding appear the aback bisected of the year.
Thank you. And now let’s go to Q&A, operator.
[Operator Instructions]. Our aboriginal catechism comes from the band of Amit Hazan from Citigroup.
I anticipation maybe I would alpha with Halcyon aloof because it was acutely such a big change aloof from 90 canicule ago and from what we’ve apparent actually aback the launch. I anticipate I get what you’re adage by some of the drivers, but I’m aloof acquisitive you could accord us a little bit added blush on the — aloof accustomed the consequence of the change this division against above-mentioned quarter’s on what actually was abaft alive this? I mean, is this affectionate what we affectionate of — is this actually kV that’s been alive this? Or what abroad did you see in the division that actually helped you with Halcyon accepting to these abundant aloft numbers?
Thanks. A brace of things. Aboriginal of all, we adulation the volume. I anticipate that’s article that we’ve been seeing in our carry all along, anytime aback we alien it, that the kilovoltage clearance, the 510(k), acutely had an appulse in the U.S. bazaar as able-bodied as the kilovoltage addition at ASTRO beforehand this year to go out and get that carry going. Well, you heard the numbers. We had absolute acceptable uptake in Europe on that product. As able-bodied for the kilovoltage product, forth with some of the adaptive radiation analysis eyes that we’re talking about on the product, is actually triggering the developed market. But I’d say, the added affair that we actually like about this is one affair that’s been connected from the barrage is 40% of these are incremental new sockets. So we actually — we actually like that fact. We are absolute able in arising markets, 60% mature, 40% arising markets on the year. So that’s good, 40% new sites. So it’s growing our installed base. And I anticipate that’s a actually — affectionate of to accentuate that, 40% of the Halcyon orders we took in 2018 were for greenfield sites. These are association new in the business. We’re absolute aflame about that. We additionally saw a fair aggregate of aggressive takeouts, and I mean, we’ve been talking a little bit. We’ve had the catechism on the breakable market. We’ve been a little bit afraid on that, that we basic to be from Missouri, and aback we saw it, you got it. And I anticipate that has been architecture some demand, and we additionally saw some absolute acceptable breakable wins on the product.
Okay. And afresh aloof a aftereffect on the tariffs. You’re both China and the U.S. I aloof basic to get a faculty from you if whether it’s during the division or what you apprehend for the aing budgetary year. On the top line, did you see any appulse from the tariffs on the top band in agreement of chump reactions, if any? And do you apprehend any for budgetary ’19?
The abbreviate adaptation is, you saw our fourth quarter, I alluded to our fourth division achievement in China. We had a double-digit division in China. So certainly, on the quarter, didn’t see any impact. In fact, it was acceptable abundant that we had some adjournment in maybe Q2, Q3. We’ve fabricated absolute able statements to that bazaar about our action there. We appetite to abide to be the bazaar leader. We accept our allotment is growing in that bazaar and accept a clear, approved bazaar leadership, abundant relationships, abundant technology. And so we’re absolute admiring by what we saw in Q4 in China, and from at atomic a bazaar point of view, we’re acutely watching it. But at this point in time, we are okay. Maybe Gary can allocution a little bit about the acquirement ancillary of it as it translates from a assessment point of view.
Yes, Amit, aloof to affectionate of aggravate this out a little bit added and to be cellophane about it. So of the $60 actor of gross impact, $48 actor of that is accompanying to the castigating assessment from China. And so that’s our articles activity from the U.S. and into China, and that will be advised as antipode revenue. $12 actor of the $60 actor gross appulse will be advised as cost, and that’s accompanying to our articles that are advancing from China to the U.S. And so that’s affectionate of the accounting and the mechanics as to what the gross appulse is for FY ’19. And again, now through the operating accomplishments we talked about, right, in agreement of accumulation chain, bartering operations, G&A, abundance and our R&D rephasing, we can net that aback bottomward to an $18 actor appulse in FY ’19.
And one final quick one for you Gary. Can you accord us your guidance, your acquirement guidance, for the year ex FX?
Revenue advice is 5% to 8%., and that’s across-the-board of all the tariffs that are allowable today — sorry, sorry. I misheard you. So on the FX side, it’s the FX ante at the alpha of our budgetary year.
And what would the beforehand be ex — in connected bill for budgetary ’19? If it’s 5% to 8% reported, what would it be connected currency?
There are some appulse to it. I mean, we don’t apperceive based on accepted rates. It’s not all that awfully material, we think, for ’19. But again, it’s already impacted or already accounted for in our 5% to 8% beforehand we talked about.
Our aing catechism comes from the band of Anthony Petrone from Jefferies.
Maybe to alpha afresh on Halcyon, aloof the adjustment breeze this quarter. I was aloof affectionate of wondering, aback you attending at above-mentioned artefact cycles, TrueBeam for instance, I anticipate that artefact cycle, maybe aback 7 years or so, ailing at maybe 350, 375 orders for the year. I mean, based on this run rate, we would array of be accepting aing to 300, arctic of 300 for the year. So how connected of a aerodrome do you anticipate Halcyon is from a artefact cycle? And area do you anticipate it could aiguille on in agreement of abacus added orders? And afresh I accept a aftereffect on guidance.
There is a brace differences here. Aback we alien TrueBeam, we were eventually replacing our accomplished artefact line. That is not the case here. Halcyon is absolute complementary-focused to our artefact line. We appetite to accumulate both growing. We adulation the quarter. As I said, we had huge uptake in incremental sockets activity in the installed base. That’s actually been the focus. So accepting both of these articles in our artefact bassinet is aloof a market-leading position. It can’t be beat. In agreement of affectionate of area does it go, we’re absolute absorbed to watch what happens in developed markets. The artefact has had a absolute acceptable accession in developed markets. And the kilovoltage addition is new actuality at ASTRO. Sorry, if my articulation was a little gravelly. I accept been talking a lot in the aftermost 5 days. But the adaptive action with Halcyon is activity to accord us some added legs in the developed market. And afresh in arising markets, I mean, alike with this big uptick that we saw in Q4, we still had 40% of the absolute allotment that was growing in arising markets, is actually what we’ve apparent over the blow of the year. So I anticipate — and a absolute acceptable position. I aloof — affectionate of dispatch aback a little bit from — today, is the aftermost day of the ASTRO display here. We’ve got the arch debt portfolio we’ve anytime had. Aback you affectionate of attending aloft hardware, software, proton therapy, eyes for the future, abduction the acuteness of our customers, I don’t — I couldn’t be prouder of the aggregation and what the — what we’ve done at this year’s ASTRO.
That’s helpful. And afresh the aftereffect on advice would be, I guess, by my math, that’s about a $0.16 appulse to antithesis from tariffs, but I apperceive there’s a capricious there in allotment count. So I’m aloof apprehensive if that’s accurate. And in my understanding, was that there was assorted exemptions, pathways offered to companies, both in the U.S. and in China actually, and so, is there a abeyant for some of those exemptions to go through and the EPS headwind to reverse?
Why don’t you allocution about guidance, and I’ll allocution a little bit about accepting the exemption?
Yes, sure. And Anthony, you’re appealing abundant atom on. $0.15, $0.16 is atom on to the impact. So acceptable algebraic there.
Yes. And afresh in agreement of what’s the likelihood of accepting an exemption, we abide to accept auspicious and advantageous conversations with key government leaders to ensure that we can accompany our blight solutions to patients about the apple and abnormally in China. We’re actively — we filed an absolution to exclude this from the accepted barter dispute. We won’t apperceive until that’s — it’s affectionate of a bifold thing, yes, or no. In the meantime, we’re ecology the bearings very, absolute closely.
Our aing catechism comes from the band of Tycho Peterson from JPMorgan.
This is Eleni on for Tycho. We were wondering, can you guys admonish us what adjacencies you’re aptitude appear in agreement of your M&A strategy, branch into your aing budgetary year? Is it still a cord of chaplet approach?
Sure. I anticipate you saw what we did in 2018. In 2018, we had acquisitions that were both commutual to our amount business and some acquisitions, admitting smaller, that took us out of the amount business. We did accept a run at Sirtex, as you know, a little bigger. We’re accommodating to do bigger acquisitions, provided we see acceptable acknowledgment on invested capital, acknowledgment on the advance we accomplish in the accretion and synergies with our portfolio. I would say the key areas that we’ll attending at are complementing our software business. You saw one of those from us 10 canicule ago. We acquired Noona Health. Noona Health, I mentioned briefly in the call, is a accommodating appear outcomes software, a cloud-based apparatus that looks very, absolute exciting. We’re absolute admiring that it additionally gives us a little bit of a comedy in the pharma space. So we’re demography accommodating appear outcomes in blight aloft the blight enterprise, so to speak, to appraise how analytic trials are d and what the accommodating perceives is outcome. And we’re absolute aflame about that opportunity. As we attending at our analysis planning business, we see that there’s an befalling to extend analysis planning into added forms of accomplishing radiation. And that’s a nice comedy for us. Whether it be radioemization, we started some of those opportunities organically. There may be some asleep ones. We abide to attending at interventional oncology as a abeyant play. And there ability be some actually acceptable synergies in added places area radiation is acclimated as a apparatus for blight care.
Great. And a catechism on the assessment front. We were apprehensive what are some of the accomplish you accept taken to account the assessment appulse on your margins.
Yes, Gary, you appetite to booty a able at that one?
Yes, like we categorical here, affectionate of attractive at this holistically and what are the opportunities there, and afresh we see opportunities in the accumulation chain. We’re demography accomplishments about our bartering operations today, authoritative abiding that our G&A abundance holds up in this ambiance and attractive at evaluating the R&D portfolio and rephasing some of that. That R&D portfolio we’ll be rephasing will not appulse affectionate of abiding things that we appear today at ASTRO and added things that are cardinal accession programs in the portfolio. But those are the aloft actions.
I anticipate the alone affair I’d add to that is, we said it in the call, but it’s activity to booty us a brace abode to get some of this going, and so the appulse will be a little bit additional half-weighted.
Our aing catechism comes from the band of Vijay Kumar from Evercore ISI.
This is Vijay. So maybe aloof one, starting on with — and I apologize if this has been asked, but I basic to get aback on the Halcyon orders. And afresh maybe, can you animadversion on — like what collection this trend type? Was this — is this now an articulation point, area I acceptance we’re aggravating to accept what was one-off, what’s the aggregate order, or how acceptable is this?
The abbreviate adaptation is it’s 1,000 credibility of ablaze here. It’s — we had a absolute acceptable business accomplishment over the aftermost year aback the launch. Chump endorsements accept been absolute strong. I accept — I didn’t say it in the call, but our uptime on the artefact has been 99%. And balloon uptime for a second, what that actually speaks to is the robustness of this artefact from its aboriginal day. And you attending at added articles the competitors are bringing to market, they lix and blunder for 4 or 5 years, and finally, they get the workflow appropriate and acquaint — and the artefact affectionate of assuredly works. This has been an outstanding artefact from the beginning. Yes, there ability be a little seasonality because Q4 is our bigger division of the budgetary year. So I’d apprehend some seasonality from that point of view. We did — it was the aboriginal abounding division area we had the 510(k) clearance, a additional abounding division with the approval for the kilovoltage imaging in EMEA. I anticipate — actuality — we’re actuality at ASTRO. We launched our adaptive action that will be affiliated to the Halcyon product. I anticipate there’s — yes, there’s activity to be some seasonality, and there’s activity to be chapped abode and bottomward abode and up quarters. But I anticipate there’s absolute acceptable drive on this product.
That’s helpful, Dow. And aloof maybe on the advice here. I know, in the past, you’ve announced about actuality in talks with the administering on maybe accepting an absolution on the assessment impacts. So can you accord us an amend on area you are about to the, vis-à-vis, talks with the administration? And aback I attending at the revenues, 5% to 8%, we aloof had a astounding year, right? For you guys, from an amoebic acquirement standpoint, why would those trends moderate, if you will? And I accept the affair of tougher comps, but afresh it looks like the basal business, aloof accustomed the Halcyon are array of acrimonious up steam, so maybe can you accomplish animadversion on the acquirement ancillary as well?
For the assessment affair first. As I said, we accept filed an exemption. It’s actually a bifold process. We’re accepting advantageous conversations with everybody involved. But it is a bifold process. It’s affectionate of yes, no, and so we don’t actually accept account until we get a decision. And there’s affectionate of no agreement on the timing. So we’re acute it very, absolute hard. We anticipate this is accompanying — we’re a big consign — a big net exporter in the U.S. It’s 50,000-plus jobs in the U.S. that are involved. We amusement about all of the veterans administering blight patients who charge radiation and is absolute angry to our accession stories. So that’s the — those are the arguments that we’re authoritative with the administration. And as anon as we hear, we’ll let you know. On the acquirement side, I mean, Gary, why don’t you comment, and I’ll accomplish a little animadversion on the bazaar after.
Yes, Vijay, so affectionate of the blueprint that goes into that 5% to 8% is we saw OS orders of 9% on the year. Our excess has developed 7% in OS on the year. You anticipate about it, as I categorical in detail, there’s $48 actor of antipode acquirement alive in from the tariffs in that 5% to 8%. And so aback you all — you affectionate of put that all together, that tells you that, that 5% to 8% seems like it’s about appropriate aback you tie up that equation.
Maybe if I could clasp one added in guys. Can you animadversion on the aboriginal bisected against additional bisected in the EPS cadence? And Gary, in the chargeless banknote flow, I apperceive that the advice at the mean for chargeless cash, that implies a mid-single-digit addition over budgetary ’18. But afresh it looks like budgetary ’18 came in beneath antecedent expectations, right? So if this is a timing issue, maybe can you aloof allocution about one of those chargeless banknote and maybe if there’s a catch-up advancing bottomward the road?
I’ve been actuality — as you know, we’ve switched to anniversary guidance, so we are anniversary advice only. As I said in the preamble, we are additional half-weighted. A lot of the assessment acknowledgment strategies that we’re putting in place, we’re putting in abode over the advance of the aboriginal half. So they will appulse our additional half, so our antithesis will be a little added additional half-weighted, and Gary, you can booty the blow of the question.
I anticipate that’s right, Dow. And I absent the blow of the question, sorry.
I’m sorry. On the chargeless banknote breeze guidance…
Is that actually what you needed, Vijay?
The chargeless banknote guidance, sorry, you said, it looks like the budgetary ’18 came in below…
So we’re affectionate of a little short, Vijay, and that’s actually apprenticed by the able antithesis beforehand in Europe. And if you attending at Europe, affectionate of agreement and conditions, and they’re aloof a little bit best than the blow of the world. So aloof mix, and that takes a little bit while to bright through. So we like the advice of $460 actor to $510 million, and we’ll abide to appraise that and drive operating accomplishments to abide to move alive basic in the appropriate direction.
Our aing catechism comes from the band of Brandon Henry from RBC Basic Markets.
Just one catechism on the bazaar growth. Obviously, what you guys affectionate of elected, to allocution about a auto in bazaar beforehand over the aftermost brace of quarters, can you aloof allocution about what you anticipate is alive that auto in your view? And afresh what’s accustomed you the aplomb that this akin of bazaar beforehand can abide over the aing 12 months? And I aloof accept a few follow-ups.
I anticipate there’s a brace of things activity on. We accomplished the year, the U.S. — to attending in the rearview mirror for a second, our U.S. numbers, we were up 6% in the U.S., 5% in connected currency. In EMEA, we were up 17%, 13% in connected currency. And afresh APAC, we were up 9% on the year, up 8% in connected currency. So aback you affectionate of anticipate about that in the ambience of the markets, I’d say the aberrant one actuality has been EMEA. And EMEA has been aloft the board. Some of it is arising markets. So we’ve got Africa and India and Eastern Europe in those numbers, Russia in those numbers, Middle East. I anticipate that’s activity to continue. We’ve had absolute acceptable achievement in Western Europe as well, Central and Western Europe. So that’s been good. I’d say, we anticipate that market’s blind in there. It’s apparently not a double-digit market, but it’s blind in there, and the blow continues to abound very, absolute well. The added beforehand numbers in Asia and Americas — Americas is — maybe a little bigger than we’ve done historically.
Asia, arguably, we’ve done better. So aback I affectionate of attending at the balance, I anticipate the markets are activity to be up a little bit from what we’ve affectionate of historically talked about. We’ve affectionate of historically talked about a 2 to 4 number, and it’s apparently added a mid-single-digit affectionate of bazaar scenario, with some upside. And we’ll say this, we feel absolute acceptable about our portfolio, and one of the things that we’re seeing is we anticipate the portfolio ability — the upside in the bazaar book ability be upgrades and assuredly accepting bodies to aing out, to change out, 12- to 15-year-old articles to upgrade. And we’ll watch that and abode on it as we assassinate the year.
All right. And afresh on Halcyon, do you anticipate there’s any pent-up appeal for the Halcyon kV imaging in the developed markets? And how should we be cerebration about the sustainability of that affectionate of gross adjustment cardinal over the aing brace of quarters? And afresh maybe longer-term, how do we anticipate about the portfolio in agreement of Halcyon, how you position that, against TrueBeam affectionate of longer-term?
Now the two articles both accept a abundant position in the marketplace. We are absolute aflame about the adaptive action that we’ve launched on Halcyon. TrueBeam will abide our SBRT, SRS belvedere of choice, the best flexible, fastest gun in the West. Aback you — we accept now done 1.5 actor SRS and SBRT treatments over time. We still accept a huge Clinac installed abject to upgrade. Barter are authoritative those choices one by one. Halcyon does not accept electrons. TrueBeam has abundant college dosage rate, has abundant added adjustable automated positions with the C-arm geometry and has the ultimate versatility in the bazaar for accomplishing all applications. We’re alpha our adaptive action on Halcyon about what will extend the adaptive action aloft our absolute business. Our focus is on growing our installed base. That’s why we started advice that to you about a year ago. You’ve apparent the amazing uptick, 220-ish assemblage installed abject beforehand and net installed abject beforehand that we’ve had this aftermost year, and that’s affectionate of the way we are managing the portfolio as we advertise it into the market. I do anticipate that kilovoltage addition in the developed apple is absolute and exciting, and that affiliated with the adaptive action on that artefact is activity to accord us some cogent legs activity forward.
All right. And afresh aloof one aftermost catechism for me. Can you allocution about the agency that get you to the high and lower end of your budgetary year ’19 operating allowance advice range? And afresh what are you d in advice for operating margins and EPS for FX?
Yes, so as it relates to the operating advice of 17% to 18%, the way to anticipate about that is there’s about a 50 abject point appulse in there from the tariffs that we had talked about. That $18 actor net in operating antithesis is that 50 abject credibility impact. I anticipate there’s added puts and takes to anticipate your way through. I anticipate the favorable things activity on appropriate now are actually — I see we’re accepting some operating advantage in G&A that we aloof talked about. We’ve got our software and casework portfolio growing at abundant rates, and those, as you know, are accretive to the aggregation boilerplate allowance rate. And afresh I would say, it’s account and consistently balanced, like I said, acclimation beforehand and advantage over time with the investments we’re authoritative in R&D. If you attending at what we formed out today and in the aftermost brace of canicule actuality in San Antonio, that’s a amazing portfolio of R&D and that’s acquiescent that affectionate of beforehand you’re seeing in the top line. And so we appetite to accomplish abiding we abide to accomplish those investments to abide that top band growth. So those are affectionate of the puts and takes as you anticipate about operating antithesis in that 17% to 18%. As it relates to currency, again, the bill ante as of the end of our budgetary — the alpha of our budgetary year is what we accept alive in our guidance. And if you attending at the affectionate of the — what’s adumbrated — what that implies is a baby appulse from bill on a year-over-year basis, but not all that material.
Our aing catechism comes from the band of Jason Bednar from Baird.
I aloof basic to alpha on China first. Some of the macro abstracts in contempo accessible aggregation annotation out of the — out of aloof some contempo letters advance that there’s some rumblings of maybe an bread-and-er slowdown. Obviously, you guys are still putting up some absolute acceptable numbers. But aloof analytical if you’re seeing any of that on the arena or any change in alertness to absorb from barter in that market?
Not at all. The China bazaar charcoal absolute underserved from a radiation analysis point of view. Our carry charcoal very, absolute good. We’re alive through this U.S., China barter disputes. It’s absolute important to us that, that be bound for lots of reasons. But from a bazaar point of view, at atomic so far, we’re seeing a able-bodied bazaar ambiance as the government continues to advance in blight services. I’d say, from a about allotment position, we accept connected to abound our allotment in that market. Over many, abounding years, we’ve connected our share. Our — we accept a market-leading position. Aback you attending at the China accessible breakable wins, we accept done very, absolute able-bodied and growing allotment in anniversary of the aftermost 2 abode in that bazaar as well. One of the things that we’re seeing in that bazaar is we’re seeing appeal aloft hardware. So we’re absolute aflame about that. We’ve got some localization strategies for our software, and we’re seeing some uptick in the software business as able-bodied there, which is about new for us.
Okay. And afresh aloof curious, Dow, or Gary, aloof if you can accommodate any added detail on what the assessment acknowledgment efforts actually abide of? I apperceive you mentioned alternating maybe some sourcing or some things in the accumulation chain. But aloof aggravating to get a faculty of the — maybe the accident contour about what some of those accident acknowledgment efforts are and if you accept appealing acceptable band of afterimage to actually mitigating that 70% of that impact?
Taken some abrupt accomplishments there in the accumulation alternation and in bartering operations. They are activity to be additional half-oriented in adjustment for us to get those into place. Competitively, and accustomed aggregate that’s activity on, we’re not activity to allocution a lot added detail about what the accomplishments are that we’re demography appropriate now. But we’re absolute transparent, right, about the $48 actor and the $12 actor blemish and the appulse at a gross level. And look, we’re activity to go execute, aloof like we accomplished in FY ’18 in the appropriate operational rigor, in adjustment to bear on our commitments. So that’s what we apperceive and as aback — and aback we apperceive added about the tariffs, we’ll allotment more.
Okay. And afresh aloof one aftermost quick one, if I can it in, aloof on Augmenix. I accept you had a boyhood absorption in that business afore it was afresh acquired. Is that article that’s reflected in guidance, or is that aloof a one-off that you will exclude?
It’s a one-off. We endemic a absolute baby allotment of that company, and it will be beneath the line.
Not reflected in guidance.
Yes. And not reflected in advice at all.
Our aing catechism comes from the band of Isaac Ro from Goldman Sachs.
This is Frits on for Isaac. Two questions for me. Aboriginal one on gross margin. I apperceive you’ve talked about some accumulation alternation ambiguity and that software is a advantageous mix. But we aloof acknowledge accepting a feel for what’s d your advice for gross allowance aing year and affectionate of the puts and takes there. And afresh additional question, on the tax rate. Obviously, it was college than accepted this quarter, allotment of that was geographic mix, and afresh again, aing year, allegorical aloft what was accepted for this year. Aloof wondering, accustomed the beforehand aggregate that we’re seeing in your business, college out of the United States, why is it activity up in those situations?
Yes, I’ll booty the aftermost one first, on the tax rate. From a tax aggregate perspective, I would say, it was geographic mix, mostly apprenticed from our ambiguity contracts, not actually as abundant as the basal business. Those ambiguity affairs apprehend aggregate in the U.S. and so you get a college tax on that and the basal acknowledgment to alfresco the U.S., which you can’t adopt. And so that’s the majority of that geographic mix in earnings, it’s not actually the basal business. The additional allotment — or the aboriginal allotment of your question, again, one added time, sorry?
In gross margin, I apperceive software is a absolute benefit. You’re alive to abate accumulation alternation aggregate from tariffs. Aloof all-embracing puts and takes there and what you’re d for advice aing year.
Guide to the gross allowance rate, I would say that, aloof puts-and-takes-wise, certainly, continuing the mix of that software and casework business is favorable. I would acquaint you that the amazing drive we’ve apparent in Halcyon will afresh additionally alpha to cycle into the P&L actuality into FY ’19. It’s a little bit account by geographic mix, and the added you mix alfresco of the U.S., you get a little bit of burden central the allowance — gross allowance line. But overall, I anticipate the teams are alive absolute able-bodied in bazaar to advertise aggregate and to apprehend the appropriate amount trade-offs with growth. And so absolute admiring with the team’s achievement this accomplished year and no acumen to accept why that wouldn’t continue.
Ladies and gentlemen, our aing catechism comes from the band of Anthony Petrone from Jefferies.
Maybe just, in the 5% to 8% guidance, there’s a scattering of acquisitions, and so I’m aloof apprehensive what the contributions from the assorted software affairs are in that 5% to 8% guidance. And then, overall, aloof basic allocations. You mentioned tuck-ins. There’s added areas, of course, you can move in, but you additionally did some buybacks this quarter. So I haven’t apparent you appear to the bazaar in a bit, so I’m aloof apprehensive what’s reflected in the antithesis advice for buybacks.
Anthony, and on the M&A front, it’s actually affectionate of immaterial aing year. I anticipate a lot of what we’ve invested in has amazing legs in the portfolio and will crop a abundant account to us over time. Add the key tuck-ins, both in the amount as able-bodied as in the software business, we’re assured nice after-effects from. But on clue about to our business cases, but annihilation actually awfully absolute in FY ’19. From a basic allocation perspective, I would say that you saw us a little added alive in the bazaar actuality in the fourth quarter, affairs aback about $50 actor account of banal against we were averaging the $25 actor to $30 actor or so above-mentioned to that. We’ll abide to administer to almost a collapsed allotment calculation as we accept included this acceptance central of that antithesis per allotment guidance. And we’ll affectionate of see how this plays out and go from there. But no absolute change in the basic allocation access activity forward. We appetite to accomplish abiding we advance abundant banking adaptability to booty advantage of opportunities we see out there and organically. And we anticipate we’re lined up accurately appropriate now to do that.
Ladies and gentlemen,, we accept no added questions in chain at this time. I’d like to about-face the attic aback over to administering for closing.
Looking avant-garde to aing here. Wait, we’ve got it appropriate here. Thank you. In closing, aloof a few comments. One, the backbone of our business is such that we abide to attempt finer common and acclimate the U.S., China assessment situation. As we said, the gross appulse of tariffs could be $60 million, and we apprehend to abate that bottomward to $8 actor aing year. The backbone of our China business is outstanding. We had a double-digit beforehand aggregate in the fourth quarter, architecture on several years of bazaar allotment growth.
Sorry, aloof to interrupt, aloof actually quickly, abate bottomward to $18 million.
What did I say?
You said $8 million.
$8 million. Sorry, from $60 actor to $18 million. The backbone of our China business is outstanding. We had a double-digit beforehand aggregate in the fourth quarter, architecture on several years of bazaar allotment growth, and we abide committed to our barter and advancement our beforehand in China. We attending avant-garde to accepting Halcyon in our artefact bassinet actuality soon. In closing, accept accomplished drive fueled by our investments in accession bartering basement over the aftermost few years and we abide to win in the marketplace, and we accept actually no ambition of affairs aback now. Thank you for aing us today. I’m absolute admiring with the beforehand we’ve fabricated in the fourth division and over the aftermost year appear alive on our abiding value-creation strategy. And in aggregate we do, we abide committed to innovating new technologies to drive appear the ultimate victory, a apple afterwards the abhorrence of cancer. Thanks for aing us today.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does achieve our teleconference for today. You may now abstract your band at this time. Thank you for your participation, and accept a admirable day.
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