By LetsRun.comOctober 31, 2018
For the aboriginal time in the Apple Chase Majors era, two American women are ascendant aloft chase champions (Deena Kastor, who spent the summer of 2006 as the ascendant Chicago/London champion, deserves a bark out). Shalane Flanagan got things started aftermost abatement by acceptable the aboriginal American woman to win in New York in 40 years; in April, Des Linden akin her accomplishment by catastrophe a 33-year American changeable aridity in Boston. Both of those women, as able-bodied as American bisected chase almanac holder Molly Huddle, will be in New York on Sunday, but accession American achievement is far from assured and in actuality absurd to happen: Mary Keitany and Vivian Cheruiyot, the second- and fifth-fastest women of all time, will be attractive to restore Kenya’s dominance. Plus there is Netsanet Gudeta of Ethiopia, active her aboriginal austere marathon, who will attending to chase in Geoffrey Kamworor‘s footsteps and go from apple bisected chase best to NYC champ.
And don’t balloon about the blow of the Americans, a accumulation that includes Stephanie Bruce, Allie Kieffer (5th aftermost year), and Sarah Sellers (2nd in Boston).
We breach bottomward the women’s contenders in detail beneath and acquaint you what to attending for in New York this week.
If you’ve absent our men’s previews, t up now:
LRC Who Is Activity To Win The 2018 NYC Marathon? Geoffrey Kamworor Defends As 2:04 Men Tamirat Tola & Shura Kitata Chase Aboriginal WMM VictoryLRC U.S. Men’s Preview: 43-Yr Old Bernard Lagat Debuts, & Who Will Step Up With Galen Rupp On The Shelf?
What: 2018 TCS New York City Marathon
When: Sunday, November 4. Aristocratic women alpha at 9:20 a.m. ET, aristocratic men alpha 9:50. (Remember, US clocks accept to be confused aback one hour on Saturday night).
Where: New York, New York
How to watch: The chase will be advertisement nationally on ESPN2, with advantage alpha at 9 a.m. ET. You can additionally beck the chase online through WatchESPN. Locally, the chase will additionally be apparent on ABC7.
Important links: LRC 2018 New York City Chase advantage * Chase website
Since the alpha of 2013, every Apple Chase Aloft has been won by a woman with a PR of 2:24 or faster. There are six such women in this year’s NYC field: Vivian Cheruiyot, Shalane Flanagan, Mary Keitany, Des Linden, Mamitu Daska, and Rahma Tusa. That doesn’t necessarily beggarly that Molly Huddle (2:28:13) or apple bisected champ Netsanet Gudeta (2:29:15 pb) can’t win; it aloof agency that they would be authoritative history if they did so.
So let’s activate our attending at this year’s women’s acreage by analytical the abeyant winners (based on the belief laid out above) afore affective on to the best of the rest.
PR wise, Kenyans Mary Keitany and Vivian Cheruiyot are in a altered cosmos to the blow of the acreage — Keitany has run 2:17:01, Cheruiyot 2:18:31, while no one abroad in the acreage has burst 2:21. If they’re at the top of their game, one of these women should win on Sunday, but one charge alone attending aback to aftermost year for an archetype of how things can go awry.
Mary Keitany — Kenya, 36 years old, 2:17:01 pb (2017 London), 64:55 half
Last two marathons: 2nd 2017 New York (2:27:54), 5th 2018 London (2:24:27)
Looking absolutely at her aftermost two chase results, it’s accessible to draw the cessation that Mary Keitany may be accident her blow at age 36. But ambience is important: there’s a acumen Keitany bootless to win her fourth NYC Chase appellation aftermost abatement and why Keitany walk-jogged her way aloft the accomplishment band in fourth abode in London this spring.
Keitany was in abundant appearance aftermost abatement — she won the Abundant North Run in 65:59 — but was felled in New York by factors aloft her control. The day afore the race, she got her aboriginal aeon in three months, and it was bright that she was not the aforementioned abettor the aing day. In London, Keitany was in alike bigger shape: she clocked a bisected chase pb of 64:55 in February (#3 all-time). But she ran her aboriginal bisected in a antic 67:16 and absolutely cratered in the unseasonably balmy conditions, agreeable 77:09 for her additional half.
Barring any abrupt circumstance, Keitany should be aback to her best in New York, and she’s not activity to be activity out anywhere aing to 67:16 for the aboriginal half. And Keitany’s best is usually acceptable abundant to win: she won NYC by 1:07 in 2015 and a aberrant 3:35 in 2016.
Don’t overcomplicate this: Keitany is one of the best marathoners of all time, and ran 64:55 for the bisected beneath than nine months ago. She should argue for the win afresh on Sunday. The alone affair that makes us hardly borderline is we don’t apperceive if she’s fit as she didn’t do any basic races, but we’ll acquisition out at the columnist conferences afterwards this week.
Vivian Cheruiyot — Kenya, 35 years old, 2:18:31 pb (2018 London), 67:43 half
Last two marathons: 1st 2017 Frankfurt (2:23:35), 1st 2018 London (2:18:31)Tuneup race: 67:43 for 1st at Abundant North Run on September 9
Cheruiyot, one of the best abundant ambit runners on the clue (four apple titles, four Olympic medals, including 5k gold in 2016), showed that she is aloof as acceptable in the chase by demography bottomward a arch acreage to win the London Chase in April in 2:18:31 (the seventh-fastest chase anytime run).
New York will be a new claiming for Cheruiyot, as it will be her aboriginal championship-style chase (previously she’s done London alert and Frankfurt once) but we like action on aptitude and Cheruiyot is one of the best able runners to accept anytime absolved the Earth.
Plus she looks to be in abundant appearance appropriate now. Two months ago, she won the Abundant North Run in 67:43, but added absorbing than the time was who she beat. In additional place, nine abnormal abaft Cheruiyot? Brigid Kosgei, who aloof ashamed anybody by active 2:18:35 in Chicago. In third, 27 abnormal abaft Cheruiyot? Bisected chase apple almanac holder Joyciline Jepkosgei.
Netsanet Gudeta — Ethiopia, 27 years old, 2:29:15 pb (2017 Paris), 66:11 half
Gudeta, a bisected chase stud, will booty her aboriginal austere attack at the chase in New York (she ran 2:29 in Paris in 2017, but a antecedent told us that she wasn’t able to run that chase and alone did it for the money). And we beggarly stud. Check out what she’s done this year:
March: Ran 66:11 (fastest time anytime in a women’s-only race) to win the apple bisected chase appellation by 43 abnormal over WR holder Joyciline Jepkosgei.
June: Ran 67:30 to win the Olomouc Bisected Chase by 2:15.
July: Ran 71:34 at 8,660 anxiety to win the Bogota Bisected Chase by 3:06 over Brigid Kosgei (who aloof ran 2:18 to win Chicago).
That is some résumé. Gudeta, who trains with her bedmate Gelelcha Girma alfresco of Addis Ababa, has additionally run 30:36 for 10,000 meters and becoming Apple XC brownish in 2015. She has all the adequacy of a able marathoner, and we consistently anticipate XC studs are adapted for NYC as it shows they do able-bodied in contest area your accent is burst often. But she’ll accept her easily abounding with two of the best of the apple in Keitany and Cheruiyot.
Mamitu Daska — Ethiopia, 35 years old, 2:21:59 pb (2011 Frankfurt), 66:27 bisected pb (2015)
Daska is a actual acceptable runner. She ran 2:21:59 to win the 2011 Frankfurt Marathon. She able third in New York aftermost year. She was arch this year’s Boston Chase at 20 miles. Despite adage all of that, she doesn’t accept the accreditation of the runners aloft and for her to win in New York, a lot of things would accept to go her way.
Rahma Tusa — Ethiopia, 25 years old, 2:23:46 (Rome 2018), 68:28 half
Tusa has won the aftermost three Rome Marathons, including this year in 2:23:46, which got her beneath the 2:24 barrier that history has apparent may be acceptable to win a WMM. However, acceptable in Rome and acceptable in New York are absolutely altered things.
Flanagan abashed the active apple by acceptable New York aftermost year. Linden followed that up by beauteous anybody by acceptable in Boston. Both American champions will be on the starting band on Sunday, as will Molly Huddle, the American almanac holder in the bisected marathon. Let’s alpha by discussing their affairs collectively afore attractive at them individually.
If Vivian Cheruiyot or Mary Keitany accept their best days, neither Flanagan, Linden, nor Huddle will be triumphing on the streets of New York. However, that isn’t that altered than aftermost year aback Edna Kiplagat and Keitany were headlining the field. The aberration is this year, Linden and Huddle in accession to Flanagan are in the field, so if one of the Kenyan stars falters there are three times as abounding top-tier Americans accessible to try and ample the gap.
Now let’s about-face to Linden, Flanagan, and Huddle’s affairs individually.
Des Linden — USA, 35 years old, 2:22:38 pb (2011 Boston), 70:34 half
Linden enters New York at the acme of her career as the ascendant Boston Chase champion. Abounding affected Linden’s best adventitious for celebrity was 2011 aback she absent Boston in the finishing sprint. She accepted the doubters amiss by capturing Boston this year, in some of the best alarming acclimate altitude we’ve anytime apparent for a marathon.
Linden, however, was not agreeable to sit on her laurels, and has switched coaches afterwards her awe-inspiring win in Boston. She’s aback with her academy drillmaster Walt Drenth and LetsRun.com’s Jonathan Gault has a affection adventure on Linden’s new administration and training branch into New York here: The Rebirth of Des Linden.
Linden acquainted things were accepting dried with her old admission and is now amalgam a lot added acceleration into her training. Will it pay off with an bigger performance? We will acquisition out on Sunday, but one affair is certain, Linden is actual activated with the new approach. Her abettor Josh Cox told us on Wednesday in New York that he has never apparent Linden as aflame about her training as she is now.
Many athletes alone agitate things up backward in their career afterwards a cord of subpar performances. Linden befuddled her career up afterwards her better triumph. Acceptable gave her the abandon to do what she pleased. She’s additionally called to booty advantage of her newfound acclaim by cashing in on a few added advocacy opportunities and accomplishing a few things that wouldn’t accept been accessible in the past, such as actuality a VIP at the Country Billboard Music Awards and accepting pit row admission to the Formula One accident in Austin (Linden is a huge, huge F1 fan and Cox says she structures her workouts about actuality able to watch races).
Will the added biking and/or change in training arrest or advice her achievement on Sunday? No one absolutely knows, but Linden is acceptable her befalling to booty on the best in New York.
Shalane Flanagan — USA, 37 years old, 2:21:14 pb (2014 Berlin), 67:51 half
Flanagan is aback in New York with the appellation anybody wants: arresting champion.
Many affected she adeptness retire afterwards New York, but she toed the band in Boston in April and has kept training to avert her New York title.
Now she enters what may be her final chase with no pressure. She told Runner’s World, “I feel like I can booty big risks this year. That’s the adorableness of actuality the arresting champion. I’ve already able what I absolutely wanted, so now I accept the adeptness to absolutely do whatever I want.”
That abandon has additionally let Flanagan embrace accomplishing whatever she wants in agreement of training and racing. She has not able any contest back Boston, but did advice aerial her assistant Shelby Houlihan to the American almanac at 5,000 this summer.
All breach from Flanagan’s affected are that she is fit and accessible to race, but with no action contest we’ll accept to delay and see.
Sunday, however, could be Flanagan’s final chase as she already afresh has been discussing the achievability of retirement. She said to Runner’s World, “Some canicule I use retirement as motivation, like cogent myself, ‘You alone accept three added workouts you anytime accept to do, aloof accord it all you have.’”
Molly Huddle — USA, 34 years old, 2:28:13 pb (2016 New York), 67:25 half
Huddle is the least-credentialed of the big three Americans at the chase distance, but she did accomplishment third in New York in her chase admission in 2016.
However, Huddle’s adeptness as a marathoner is still ambiguous as this is alone her third chase ever. Chase #1 was absolute for a clue abettor affective up as the clip was apathetic until the final afar and Huddle did actual able-bodied in it.
Marathon #2 was Boston this bounce and because the awful conditions, we will accord her a canyon on her achievement there (2:50:28 13th place).
We do apperceive that above-mentioned to Boston, her drillmaster Ray Treacy was actual bullish on her chances, telling LetsRun.com, “right now, if she ran on a collapsed advance like Berlin or London, I anticipate she would breach 2:20.”
Since Boston Huddle has won accession USATF 10,000m title, run 15:01 for 5,000 on the clue and run three alley contest (3rd at the NY Mini 10k 32:35 in June, 3rd at the Beach to Beacon 10k in Maine 31:40 in August, and 2nd at the US 10-mile champs in Minnesota in 52:48 aftermost month). Accident to Sara Hall at the 10-mile champs was a bit of a abruptness (Huddle’s time of 52:48 is 2:18:20 chase pace), but aggregate abroad Huddle has done this year indicates she’s accessible to accord chase #3 a try and see if she can be aggressive in a faster race.
The altitude are absolute on Sunday so it will be absorbing to see what Huddle and the added Americans can do.
There are a bulk of added Americans in the field, some (Sarah Sellers, Allie Kieffer, and Stephanie Bruce) with Apple Chase Majors success. We guarantee* about they won’t win on Sunday so we attending at their affairs in accession commodity here: Meet the Fascinating American Women Who Won’t Win (But Could Breach Out At) The 2018 New York City Marathon
Give us your thoughts about the women’s chase on our apple acclaimed messageboard / fan forum: MB: 2018 NYC Women’s Race: Can Shalane Flanagan or Des Linden echo as WMM champ? Make your picks now.
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