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Markets got you down? Can’t assume to accumulate up with your criterion this year? Not abiding you’ll anytime bulk out this accomplished buy-low, sell-high affair that you accumulate audition rumors about? Cheer up, you’ve got acceptable company. Aggregation anyway. Specifically, accumulated America, whose all-embracing bazaar timing adeptness is abundant worse than that of a chimp who watches Art Cashin.

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That’s what McKinsey coldly concluded, acquainted that from 2004 to 2010, “Only 31 percent of the [S&P 500] companies becoming a absolute acknowledgment from affairs aback shares—less than you would apprehend from a accidental bandy of the dice.” And not alone did two out of three companies underperform putting banknote beneath a pillow; three out of four underperformed dollar bulk averaging:

Now, it is not absolutely account that companies tend to spiral up allotment repurchase programs from a carefully “don’t lose lots of money” perspective. There is a simple and automatic account that may alike be correct. Best bodies buy stocks aback they get a paycheck, or win the lottery, or anticipate PE ratios are too low, or see a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, or get a tip from an insider. Some of their affairs is pro-cyclical (“ooh, stocks are up, I should buy some!”), some (more?) is counter-cyclical (“ooh, stocks are cheap, I should buy some!”), and some is uncorrelated (“ooh, I begin $20 on the floor, I’ll buy a annular lot of BAC!”).

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Companies buy their own stocks aback they are alike with cash, feel about confident, and don’t accept any decidedly acceptable account for how to abound their businesses. You would not be crazy to apprehend that access to associate able-bodied with bazaar tops. Indeed, McKinsey’s abstraction understates the under-performance, because it looks alone at buys. Companies don’t aloof buy banal aback they’re alike with banknote and assuming able-bodied – they additionally advertise banal aback they’re out of banknote and on the ropes. Buy high, advertise low.

Never fear, though, McKinsey has a solution:

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These allegation advance an accessible fix: companies should accord up aggravating to time the market. Long-term shareholders will be bigger off if administration would artlessly anticipation absolute balance banknote and analogously administer it anniversary agenda division as “dividends” in the anatomy of allotment repurchases. CFOs can access such approved buybacks in two ways. First, they can repurchase shares as balance banknote becomes available. This is the easiest access and the one atomic acceptable to accelerate adverse signals to investors about the abeyant for balance banknote or banknote shortfalls. It is apparently appropriate for best companies, alike if it generates lower returns. Second, companies can analogously administer analogously sized repurchases over time. For those accommodating to angle by their forecasts of approaching banknote flows, this dividend-like access will apparently accomplish college allotment for shareholders.

Wait … “repurchase shares as balance banknote becomes available”? Isn’t that the problem? Don’t companies buy banal aerial aback they accept too abundant banknote and advertise low aback they accept too little?

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We ran affectionate of a awkward analysis aloof to see what McKinsey was smoker and, surprisingly, either not alone does “buy whenever you accept balance cash” assignment (i.e. beat the S&P) over the 2004-2011 time aeon that McKinsey used, but – adverse to their assumption – it absolutely outperforms aloof spending a collapsed bulk anniversary month:

The dejected band represents your bulk if you bought based on LTM chargeless banknote flow; the blooming band represents your bulk if you bought the aforementioned dollar bulk anniversary quarter.* Cumulatively, $1 invested in band with banknote breeze from 2004 to 2011 would be account $1.15 today (though it looked appealing bad in 2009), against $1.12 for aloof dollar bulk averaging – both way bigger than the archetypal S&P aggregation absolutely did. It’s a aberrant result, apparently apprenticed by the rather abnormal actuality that post-2008 accumulated profits and banknote flows accept been appealing good, and companies accept accumulated cash, while the S&P has been abrading area it was bristles years ago.

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So, um, a acting aerial five, McKinsey.

The adeptness executive’s adviser to affairs aback shares [McKinsey Quarterly]

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* FCF (“free banknote flow”) boilerplate bulk = accumulative boilerplate bulk of affairs the S&P 500 in an bulk proportional to the antecedent twelve months’ banknote breeze from operations beneath capex for the S&P 500 apparatus as of today; DCA (“dollar bulk averaging”) boilerplate bulk = accumulative boilerplate bulk of affairs the S&P 500 in an according dollar bulk anniversary quarter; assumes affairs as of the bulk on the aboriginal day of anniversary agenda quarter. Zillions of caveats including assets etc. and that this doesn’t reflect alone basic performance, aloof the accumulated for the index. Source: Capital IQ.

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