By LetsRun.comSeptember 12, 2018
While we can hardly accuse about any men’s acreage that includes Eliud Kipchoge, the actuality is there isn’t abundant ball about who is activity to win the men’s hunt at this year’s Berlin Marathon: Kipchoge is the baking admired to win, aloof as he has won anniversary of the accomplished eight marathons he has entered.
(Men’s Preview: LRC Eliud Kipchoge Is Block The Apple Almanac In Berlin (Again). Whether He Gets It Or Not Is Out Of His Control)
Similarly, there is an accessible admired in the women’s hunt in Berlin as able-bodied in Tirunesh Dibaba, but with a absolute of four sub-2:20 women in the acreage (including three women who accept won majors aural the accomplished 17 months), the hunt for the win should be added aggressive than on the men’s side, which abstracts to wind up as Kipchoge vs. the clock.
We breach bottomward the women’s aristocratic acreage below.
Since the alpha of 2013, all 37 Apple Hunt Above winners accept entered the hunt with a sub-2:25 PR. As a result, in this preview, we accept alone listed the entrants who accept burst 2:25 (the abounding aristocratic acreage is can be begin here).
Tirunesh Dibaba — Ethiopia, 32 years old, 2:17:56 pb (2017 London), 66:50 halfLast two marathons: 1st 2017 Chicago (2:18:31), DNF 2018 London
Dibaba, who chose to run Berlin instead of arresting her appellation in Chicago, has started four marathons in her life. One of them went well, two of them went phenomenally well, and one of them went poorly. She debuted with a 2:20:35 in London in 2014, alternate to the clue to acquire apple and Olympic medals in the 10,000 in 2016 and 2017 (cranking out a 29:42 pb, #4 all-time, in the process) before making the hunt her full-time focus, area she broiled a 2:17:56 in London and 2:18:31 in Chicago aftermost year.
There is but one birthmark on her hunt record: a DNF in London beforehand this year that came as a aftereffect of chasing Paula Radcliffe‘s allegorical 2:15:25 apple almanac on a hot day. In that race, Dibaba went out in an cool 31:46 for the aboriginal 10k (2:14:03 pace) — a clip fast abundant to bore anyone’s hopes (Mary Keitany fared hardly better, trotting home in fifth place, active splits of 67:16 and 77:11 for a arduous 2:24:27).
But as continued as Dibaba doesn’t get bent up block the apple almanac again, she’s the best woman in the acreage on cardboard and should win. She formed out a 2:18:31 in Chicago aftermost year, mostly by herself (she had some men to hunt as the men’s and women’s contest started simultaneously, but no committed pacemakers), so apprehend her to stick on the rabbits for as continued as they go afore anguish the acreage into acquiescence late.
As acceptable as Dibaba is, however, she’ll still charge to run a able hunt to win as there’s some austere aptitude in this field.
Gladys Cherono — Kenya, 35 years old, 2:19:25 pb (2015 Berlin), 66:07 halfLast two marathons: 1st 2017 Berlin (2:20:23), 4th 2018 London (2:24:10)
Cherono has won Berlin in her aftermost two tries, clocking a pb of 2:19:25 aback in 2015 and 2:20:23 aftermost year (she absent the 2016 hunt due to injury). Berlin is a hunt that apparel her able-bodied as she’s had her best success in Berlin and Dubai (where she ran her PR of 2:20:03 in her admission in 2015), two contest area you about-face your academician off and hunt the rabbits for as continued as you can. Cherono acquaint a brace of solid after-effects in the bounce — 67:13 at the RAK Half, 2:24:10 for 4th at the London Hunt on a balmy day — and accepting Dibaba in the acreage on Sunday could act as a de facto added pacemaker for Cherono to chase.
If the two women are at their best, Dibaba will acceptable prevail, but if Cherono’s fit, she could be abject to a actual fast time. And if Dibaba has problems, Cherono is the woman best-equipped to footfall in and booty the race.
Ruti Aga — Ethiopia, 24 years old, 2:20:41 pb (2017 Berlin), 66:39 halfLast two marathons: 2nd 2017 Berlin (2:20:41), 2nd 2018 Tokyo (2:21:19)
The youngest adversary in this acreage by far (all the others are able-bodied over 30), Aga looks a to accompany the sub-2:20 club if the acclimate cooperates and Sunday could be the day she does it. She ran a PR actuality in her aboriginal actualization in 2016 (2:24:41) and bargain four account off that time to abode additional aftermost year in 2:20:41. Her accomplished anatomy has agitated over to 2018 as she won the Houston Bisected Hunt in January in a big PR of 66:39 and followed that up with 2:21:19 for additional at the Tokyo Hunt in February.
Edna Kiplagat — Kenya, 38 years old, 2:19:50 pb (2012 London), 67:41 halfLast two marathons: 4th 2017 New York (2:29:36), 8th 2018 Boston (2:47:14)
Berlin is an absorbing best for Kiplagat, who at this point in her career ata ge 38 would arise better-suited for a hunt like New York, area she can draw aloft her acquaintance (20 career marathons, 5 above wins), as adjoin to Berlin, area there is little action and she will accept to run a PR to win.
A PR isn’t out of the catechism for Kiplagat, however. Remember, Meb Keflezighi PR’d to win Boston at age 38, the aforementioned age Kiplagat is now. Aftermost year, Kiplagat put calm a actual absorbing cord of contest — win at Boston, 2nd at Worlds, 4th at New York — but because none of those were fast, rabbitted races, she didn’t detect her 2:19:50 PR.
It’s adamantine to brainstorm a 38-year-old Kiplagat announcement abroad from Dibaba, Cherono, and Aga, but she’s acceptable abundant that a top-three accomplishment is able-bodied aural the branch of achievability — which would accomplish her the aboriginal woman to almanac a top-three accomplishment in all six WMM burghal races.
Aselefech Mergia — Ethiopia, 33 years old, 2:19:31 pb (2012 Dubai), 67:21 halfLast two marathons: 12th 2017 Worlds (2:29:43), DNF 2018 Boston
Mergia has some fast times and absorbing wins beneath her belt (2010 London champ, 2011, 2012, 2015 Dubai champ), but no victories back January 2015. Part of that is because she’s been active boxy contest adjoin abysmal fields — she was third in London aftermost year back Keitany and Dibaba both ran 2:17 — but her best contempo finish, 12th at Worlds in August, was not acceptable (she gets a canyon on 2018 Boston because of the abominable weather).
Mergia is the alone woman in this accumulation to accept run annihilation aing to a tuneup race, clocking 69:45 at the Olomouc Bisected Hunt on June 23 (she accomplished additional in that race, 2:15 behind Netsanet Gudeta, the apple bisected hunt champ). That’s not a time that will about-face any heads; of the four women in this group, she’s the atomic acceptable to agitated Dibaba in Berlin.
Japan’s Mizuki Matsuda made a actual absorbing admission in Osaka in January, active a 2:22:44 that featured a abundant abrogating breach (71:59/70:45). Berlin represents a abundant footfall in competition, but if the aboriginal clip isn’t too fast (say 69:30-70:00 for the aboriginal half), she could be abject to a big PR.
There are two other Japanese women in the field, Rei Ohara (2:23:20 in Nagoya aftermost year) and Honami Maeda (2:23:48 pb). Of the two, Maeda has added upside: she has PR’d in all three of her career marathons (2:32:19 at 2017 Osaka, 2:28:48 FTW at 2017 Sapporo, 2:23:48 at 2018 Osaka), but this will be her aboriginal able at the 26.2-mile ambit alfresco of Japan. She was 35th at the Apple Bisected Hunt Championships in March, active 72:09 on a airy day.
LRC Prediction: We’ll delay until we apprehend what the athletes say at the columnist appointment but if anybody accomplished well, we anticipate anybody knows we are activity with Dibaba.
Talk about the hunt on our apple acclaimed fan appointment / messageboard: MB: 2018 Berlin Hunt Discussion Thread: Will Kipchoge get the WR? Will Dibaba get the win?
More: Men’s Preview: Eliud Kipchoge Is Block The Apple Almanac In Berlin (Again). Whether He Gets It Or Not Is Out Of His Control The aftermost 6 men’s WRs accept all been set in Berlin. Can the greatest marathoner anytime accomplish it #7?
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